The Iran Plans – My Predictions

Seymour M. Hersh wrote an article for the New Yorker detailing the extensive military planning regarding Iran and its developing nuclear abilities. He contends that the administration in the US is not only actively planning and preparing for a strike at Iran, but that we may use tactical nuclear weaponry to do so. This is clearly a scary thought, but I don't think it will happen.

First of all, the UN will get to go to bat first, and hopefully, they'll lay down some vicious sanctions. Second, Iran's stability is at risk because of that most powerful US export – culture. Iranian students are learning whats out there, and theyre not going to be satisfied with a country that forbids them so much of it. However, that will take time, and if Iran or the US put the pressure on too fast, it won't happen. I don't think that either country is in the position to bring that much pressure to bear. Iran is (hopefully) several years away from having an effective weapon, so they can't put too much bluster on the table. The US has many reasons not to pursue a violent course of action. We are already stretched thin in Iraq, and any attack on Iran would fully mobilize terrorist groups, which means either escalation of our troops, or evacuation. Neither one is appealing. Evacuation may be our best option, though. We can stop Iran's nuclear development, let the region battle it out, and CIA-back the one we want to come out on top. Doves will be happy our troops are out, neocons will know what we're actually doing, and that will be that.

The troops will pull out in September, to prepare for November elections and the January bombing campaign. Or they could do nothing until just before the Presidential elections, and pull out the troops then. Then the administration has about a year to get in and make it look good before it starts spoiling the next presidential candidate. However, I'm inclined to think they won't care, unless the democrats can bring some amount of political clout to bear on some issue.

So look to see one of two things happen: either UN sanctions, or a removal of troops for the elections and then a bombing campaign. My bet, and my hopes, are on UN sanctions.

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